Predictive analytics for wholesale distributors

Order data becomes reasons to visit.

Every night, Acto reads your ERP and CRM data, scores every customer with custom-trained machine learning models and has AI agents check every result for relevance before it reaches your sales team. What comes out is a short list of high-precision signals, each with a one-sentence reason.

From model to reason to visit
Machine learning
Language model
“Electrical distributor, South: offer cable raceways.”
Revenue decline
Order decline
Lost product categories
Missed reorder
Churn risk
Product recommendations
Product bundle
Likely reorder
Win-back
Revenue growth
Order growth
Low revenue per category
Substitute products
Margin decline
Margin growth
Open quote
Contact frequency
How a signal gets built

Seven stages from order line to reason to visit.

Acto is built like a sieve tower. Every order line goes in at the top, each stage measures, scores and enriches, and only a few signals come out at the bottom. Whatever sales reports back flows in again through the return line.

Predictive sales software, stage 01: ERP and CRM data flows into Acto every nightStage 02: order data is turned into features such as order cycle and segmentStage 03: machine learning models score churn risk and cross-selling potentialStage 04: Acto adds context from CRM notes, feedback, and company rulesStage 05: AI agents check each signal for relevanceStage 06: signals with a reason are sent to Outlook, the CRM, and the Acto appStage 07: sales feedback flows back into the predictive sales software
Acto sieve tower · seven-stage build
Sheet 1/1
Stage 01 · Intake hopper

Data gets loaded into the system

Acto takes what already lives in your systems. No new system of record, no double data entry.

Inputs
Order lines
Item, quantity, price and date of every order line
Customer data
Master data, industry, territory and contacts
Product data
Product categories, assortment and terms
Visit reports
from the CRM and the Acto app
Connection
SAP
Microsoft Dynamics
Salesforce
and more, via export, SFTP or database access
We recommend connecting through an exchange server. That way your live ERP stays untouched. All integrations
Stage 02 · Measuring ring

Algorithms calculate KPIs

Custom-built algorithms turn buying behavior into product-level KPIs, measured against each customer's own history and against similar customers.

Example KPIs
Excerpt
Seasonality
Cyclical patterns, adjusted against the peer group.
E.g.
Beverage distribution: weather separated from real growth
Reorder interval
Expected order cycle by customer and category.
E.g.
orders every 6 weeks, overdue after 8
Segmentation
Clusters by industry, buying behavior and assortment.
E.g.
Peer group for cross-selling
Trend
Movement over rolling time windows.
E.g.
Category down for 3 months
Stage 03 · Model carrier

Machine learning models score opportunities and risks

Machine learning models score every customer, from churn prediction to cross-selling. The output is a ranked list per customer, by probability and profit.

Example models
Excerpt
Opportunity models
P1
Complementary products
Bought anchors, no drill bits.
P2
Behavior-based cross-selling
Similar customers buy more.
P3
Quantity mismatch
Lots of bolts, hardly any nuts.
P4
Higher-margin products
A more profitable alternative that fits.
P5
Win-back
Bought before, not anymore.
Risk models
R1
Churn risk
Probability per customer.
R2
Decline signals
Categories dropping off.
Training
Every predictive model learns only from your company's data, with no personal data.
Stage 04 · Context line

Acto adds context

In parallel, Acto gathers what's not in the order data. A language model (LLM) processes text like CRM notes.

Context sources
Processing
Extra ERP data
Prices, product info, terms
straight from the ERP
CRM context
Notes, emails, visit reports
Summarized by a language model
Signal feedback
What was relevant, what wasn't, and why
Feedback and language model
House rules
Priorities, exclusions, business logic
Configuration and language model
User settings
Preferences for how reps are addressed
Configuration
Stage 05 · Fine sieve · the bottleneck

AI agents check relevance and weigh recommendations

The agents put model results and context side by side. Whatever isn't worth acting on right now stays in the sieve.

Checks per signal
1
Relevance check
Relevant now? Visit already scheduled? Recently dismissed?
2
Feedback match
Feedback flows into the customer's next score as context.
3
House rules
Your exclusions, priorities and business logic apply.
4
Reason
The result gets boiled down to a one-sentence recommendation.
Prioritized signals per customer
by urgency and potential, on to stage 06
Stage 06 · Distributor

Acto delivers the signals

Every signal arrives with its reason right where sales already works, every morning or right before the meeting.

Missed reorder
Example
Customer
Muster Electric Supply, South territory
Reason
Orders cable raceways every 6 weeks. Last order was 9 weeks ago.
Recommendation
Bring it up at Thursday's meeting and offer mounting hardware with it.
Channels
Outlook
Sidebar next to email and calendar
CRM
Dynamics 365, SAP C4C, Salesforce
Web and mobile, right before the customer meeting
Stage 07 · Return line

Feedback flows back into the system

What happens in sales goes into the next nightly run.

Returns
06
01
Visit reports
Whatever reps log after a meeting, including by voice, is a data source for the next run.
06
04
Signal feedback
Relevant or not relevant, per signal. The feedback flows into this customer's next score as context.
Cadence
Every night. Every data import kicks off a full scoring run.
Signal catalog

Four groups of signals, with new ones added all the time.

Signals are calculated against each customer's own history and, where it fits, against similar customers. A selection per group:

01Churn and risk

Examples
Revenue decline
Revenue drops compared to prior periods.
Missed reorder
The usual order cycle is exceeded, overall or for a specific product.
Churn risk
A model measures order volumes and missed purchases against the customer's own history and your entire customer base.

02Revenue opportunities

Examples
Product recommendations
Comparing with similar customers shows what's missing from the cart.
Likely reorder
The cycle runs out before the customer orders on their own.
Win-back
Inactive customer with a high chance of coming back, plus a product suggestion.

03Margins

Examples
Margin decline
Gross margin drops compared to prior periods.
Margin growth
Gross margin rises compared to prior periods.

04Process and account care

Examples
Open quote
A quote without an order, or an order without the quoted items.
Contact frequency
The usual contact rhythm with a customer breaks off.
Measured
92%

of delivered signals are marked relevant by the sales team at Schäfer Shop .

That's the relevance check at work. Whatever isn't worth acting on never reaches your reps. The list stays short enough that people actually read it.

Context

Data only means something in context.

Order data shows what's happening. The why often lives in visit reports, in your sales team's know-how and in your house rules. Acto brings both together before an alert reaches your reps.

Example · Siebert, restaurant customer
Stages 04 and 05
Order data · ERP
Zero orders for three weeks
Signal: missed reorder
Visit report
“Closed for vacation until mid-month”
Dictated after the last visit
House rule
A summer slowdown in food service isn't a red flag
Set by your sales team
Context
With context
Siebert hasn't ordered in three weeks. No need to panic: they're closed for vacation until mid-month.
Reminder set for their first day back
Without context
“Siebert is about to churn. Call them now.”
False alarm: a sales call in the middle of their vacation
Case studies

Our customers measure more revenue per field rep.

Distributors using Acto grow revenue per rep with more upsell and cross-sell, less churn, and more time in front of customers.

Böllhoff: measured against non-users during the pilot. Plate: also 35% less time between orders.
FAQ

Questions about data and technology.

  • Is this just a language model in disguise?

    Language models work wherever text is involved: processing CRM notes, in the AI agents' relevance check, and in writing the reason. Whether a customer is slipping or has potential is calculated by machine learning models on your transaction data.

  • How does Acto predict customer churn?

    A dedicated machine learning model estimates each customer's probability of churning. It looks at order volumes and missed purchases and measures the customer against their own history and your entire customer base. Before that turns into an alert, Acto checks the context. If the customer announced a vacation shutdown, for example, there's no alarm.

  • How does Acto know what's normal in our industry?

    The features are built on wholesale logic: reorder cycles, assortment structure, seasonality. Every customer is measured against their own history and, where it fits, against similar customers in your data, grouped by industry, purchase volume and order frequency.

  • What happens if our sales team thinks a signal is wrong?

    They reject it and give a reason. The rejection only applies to that one customer, and the reason flows into that customer's next score as context.

  • What happens if we switch ERPs?

    The handoff is seamless. Acto keeps running on your current system and gets switched over to the new ERP once the migration is done. No second data project in the middle of your migration.

  • Where is our data stored, and who can see it?

    Your data is stored in Frankfurt, Germany, and processed in compliance with GDPR. Language models run in data centers inside the EU. Predictive models are trained exclusively on your company's business data, with no personal data and no mixing with other customers. The language models are general-purpose models and are never fine-tuned on your data.

Cross-section
What Acto calculates

Inside: seven stages of computation.

Algorithms, machine learning models and AI agents work through every customer before a signal reaches your sales team.

Line drawing of Acto's predictive analytics: seven stages from data import to the feedback loop
Parts list
  1. 01
    Data import
    Order, customer and product data
  2. 02
    Metrics
    Algorithms
  3. 03
    Risks and opportunities
    Machine Learning
  4. 04
    Context
    Large language model (LLM)
  5. 05
    Reasoning
    AI agents
  6. 06
    Output
    Outlook, CRM, Acto app
  7. 07
    Feedback loop
    Feedback from the sales team
View
What field sales sees

Outside: two minutes to the next meeting.

Field reps only see the result: which customer, why, and what to bring up. In Outlook, in the CRM or in the Acto app.

Field sales app
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